The Week

Since Memorial Day, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline has increased by just one cent. While gas prices in the Washington, D.C. metro area increased by a penny, prices in the District of Columbia decreased by three cents, but they are both between 74 and 77 cents lower than one year ago.

The first holiday weekend of summer, Memorial Day, is in the rear-view mirror. But the “travel associated with it is thought to provide an early glimpse into gasoline demand during the summer driving season,” explains the Oil Price Information Service (OPIS), which provides daily fuel price data to AAA.

“U.S. personal travel data during the week ended May 22 increased the most for the 10 weeks of the COVID-19 period (beginning in late February), with Memorial Day weekend travel likely helping trim six percentage points from the previous week's 25% deficit.” That’s according to OPIS’s review of data from INRIX. “Personal travel rebounded across all states, with eight states seeing travel increase by more than 10% compared to the previous week”, according to OPIS and INRIX.

According to new data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), gasoline demand increased last week, coupled with a 700,000 barrel decrease in total domestic stocks. The national average holding steady means that gas demand and supply are largely in sync, which will likely help to stabilize pump prices for motorists.

Today’s national gas price average is $1.97, up three cents in the last week, up 21 cents in the last month and down 84 cents from this time last year.

CURRENT AND PAST GAS PRICE AVERAGES

Regular Unleaded Gasoline (*indicates record high)

At the close of NYMEX trading Friday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil settled at $35.49 per barrel, $2.24 higher than last Friday’s close. Crude prices spiked earlier in the week amid increased market focus on rising demand. However, domestic crude prices ultimately fell after EIA’s weekly report revealed that total domestic crude inventories increased last week. The large increase may be a sign that domestic oil demand could be slowing during a time when it typically grows because of more motorists driving. If domestic crude demand begins to flatten or decrease, crude prices could decrease.

The Weekend

“Heading into the Memorial Day holiday weekend, ‘travel increased in 95 of the 98 metropolitan regions, regularly tracked by INRIX,’ including the Washington metro area. Yet motorists and consumers in the Washington metro area have seen significantly less expensive gas prices for the past two months,” says John B. Townsend II, manager of Public and Government Affairs for AAA Mid-Atlantic. “While motorists will see pump prices continue to increase, AAA does not expect the summer average to be as expensive as last year’s season.”

The Week Ahead

One factor that could send prices higher is a string of severe hurricanes. The 2020 hurricane season begins June 1 and forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction predict a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a near-normal season and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30. Storms that hit the Gulf Coast region particularly hard could interrupt supplies and send prices sharply higher, at least temporarily.

AAA has a variety of resources to help motorists save on fuel:

• Shell Fuel Rewards Program for AAA Members: (https://www.AAA.com/Shell) gives AAA members nationwide a discount on gasoline at Shell stations when they join the Fuel Rewards® program.

• Fuel Price Finder (https://www.AAA.com/fuelfinder) locates the lowest fuel price in your area. 

• AAA Gas Cost Calculator (https://gasprices.aaa.com/aaa-gas-cost-calculator/) helps budget travel expenses. 

• TripTik Mobile (https://www.aaa.com/mobile) plots fuel prices along your travel route. 

• AAA's Member Rewards Visa® Credit Card (https://www.AAA.com/financial/AAAvisa.htm) accumulates double points on fuel purchases.  

Next Weekend Gas Watch: Friday, June 5, 2020

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AAA provides automotive, travel and insurance services to 60 million members nationwide and nearly 82,000 members in the District of Columbia.  AAA advocates for the safety and mobility of its members and has been committed to outstanding road service for more than 100 years.  The not-for-profit, fully tax-paying member organization works on behalf of motorists, who can now map a route, find local gas prices, discover discounts, book a hotel and track their roadside assistance service with the AAA Mobile app for iPhone, iPad and Android. For more information, visit  https://aaa.com